// The Trade Journal — Kalshi Daily Highs

FROM THE LEDGER

Every Kalshi temperature trade we make — logged the day it happens, reviewed every Sunday night. The wins, the losses, and the lessons that turned a week of trading into a system. No cherry-picking: if it's in the ledger, it's on this page.

Journaling Since
OCT 21
Every position, every day
Biggest Bank
+724%
Phoenix — Sat Oct 24
The System
PAPER MODE
Paper trading since Oct 31 — proof before real money
Week 1 Final Tally
−$3.73
Closed Oct 27 · Week 2 tally pending
Site News

Why Our Temperatures Got Slower — and Why We're Fine With It

Our data provider ended its trial and quoted $1,200 a year for numbers the government publishes free. We said no — the dashboard now runs straight from the National Weather Service. Same stations, same readings; here's the one tradeoff, stated plainly, and a first look at what Pro is becoming.

Read the site news →
★ Week in Review

Week 1: Five Days, One System — What the Ledger Taught Us

Day one, Seattle saved the book. Day two, a too-greedy take-profit rule cost us a spike — and taught us more than any win. By Friday the lessons had a name, Execution Plan v2, and on its first full day out a Phoenix lottery leg paid +724%. The full week, trade by trade, with every settlement final.

Read the Week 1 review →
−$3.73
WEEK FINAL
Tools of the Trade

The Next-Day Weather Scout: The Prompt That Brings Me Tomorrow's Trades

Every night an AI scout reads tomorrow's weather and tomorrow's markets and brings back a short list of candidate trades — then it stops. It has never placed an order, and the Sign-Off Rule means it never will. Here is the exact prompt, free to use, with the one rule that makes the whole arrangement safe to run.

Read the Scout post →
Daily Recap

Phoenix +724%: Execution Plan v2's First Day Out

The new system ran the slate start to finish: resting take-profit sells banked Miami at +52% and a small Phoenix leg exploded for +$8.69. Six legs rode to settlement — tonight's review closes the book on them.

Read the recap →
+$10.09
REALIZED
Daily Recap

Denver Pays for Everybody

Four banks under the discretionary rule — SF +15%, Boston +17%, Houston +34%, Atlanta +35% — and a Denver closer worth +$6.39 carried the day. Miami was the tuition: a "let it ride" call that went to −51%.

Read the recap →
−$0.04
DAY NET
Lessons

The +50% Rule Was Too Greedy

Seattle spiked into the 60s and faded while our sell sat waiting at +50% — a +20–25% rule would have banked it green. The day's best trade was the one we didn't make: down on the day, we stood down instead of chasing the loss back.

Read the lessons →
−$5.04
CUMULATIVE
Day One

Seattle Saves the Book

First day out: San Francisco and San Diego missed their brackets, and Seattle's 63–64° landed for +$2.96 to keep the damage to ninety cents. The ledger started that night — every trade since is in it.

Read Day One →
−$0.90
DAY NET

INSIDE EVERY RECAP

Each daily post closes with the full table — nothing hidden, nothing rounded away. Sample, from the Oct 23 recap:
CityHow It EndedResult
DenverClosed — the day's closer+$6.39
AtlantaBanked — discretionary take-profit+35%
HoustonBanked — discretionary take-profit+34%
BostonBanked — discretionary take-profit+17%
San FranciscoBanked — discretionary take-profit+15%
Miami"Let it ride" — ridden into the ground−51%
📓 ABOUT THIS JOURNAL
This blog is the public face of a real trading ledger. An AI agent (Muse) researches, sizes, and monitors Kalshi daily-high temperature trades; a human approves every order. Every result — good, bad, and embarrassing — gets posted here each Sunday.
From HighTempToday · The Playbook
🤖
KALSHI AGENT PLAYBOOK
The system behind this journal — as a step-by-step PDF with the actual prompt templates. Launch paused while the system proves itself in Paper Mode.
LAUNCH PAUSED
Notify Me →
⚙️ THE SYSTEM, IN SHORT
  • 1 Exits are resting orders, not reactions
  • 2 Judge by live bids, never last-trade marks
  • 3 Checks follow the sun — peak windows by time zone
  • 4 One actor at a time on the account
  • 5 Two take-profit layers: +50% resting, discretionary banks
The full method is the Playbook — this journal is it, running live.

Education only — not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk, including the loss of your stake. All trades shown are real and taken from the HighTempToday ledger; past results do not predict future results.